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ARN Mo3Discontinuities and Vector-Borne Diseases in Urban Areas
A Simulation Model of a Complex Pathogenic System


Research Program ANR MO3(ANR-19-CE03-0004)

(Éric Daudé, affiliated researcher at IRASEC)


Vector-borne diseases (dengue, Zika, chikungunya) are an important public health issue. Understanding their transmission dynamics remains a major challenge at the sub-urban level. Indeed, environmental heterogeneities, variations in vector densities and daily mobility constitute a lock on the definition of epidemic risk indicators at this scale. MO3 therefore aims to (i) develop a simulation model to study the sensitivity of epidemic dynamics to targeted scenarios of anti-vector fights and (ii) evaluate in a large metropolis where dengue is endemic, Bangkok (Thailand), the effectiveness of these strategies.

In cities where these diseases are endemic, our first hypothesis is that the urban territory has a limited number of places favorable to the maintenance of mosquito population during the inter-epidemic season, sufficient to ensure local, continuous and low-noise circulation of viruses. With seasonal changes (rising temperatures, monsoon rains), vector populations are exploding, increasing the risk of spreading viruses from these areas. Our second hypothesis is that the structuring of urban space (residence, economic and commercial activities, vegetated spaces) and the resulting discontinuities structure the daily mobilities of populations, and potentially the spread of pathogens in epidemic proportions. It is therefore essential to identify these potential reservoirs of pathogen diffusion early. Moreover, in cities where these diseases are not endemic, or not yet present, the dynamic mapping of the environmental risk based on the ecology of the mosquito must make it possible to identify and monitor the places and the periods favorable to the implantation and the proliferation of mosquito vectors.

To achieve these objectives, the MO3 project will rely on differential equations and agent-based model, with high spatial and temporal resolution, to describe finely the urbanized space and the variety of dynamics that unfold there, those of vectors and human populations. Vector dynamics will be influenced by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of their ecological niche, those of humans by their daily mobility, partly linked to their place of residence, their socio-economic profile and their age. The calibration of the model will be based on various data : satellite images, census, social networks, vector and epidemiological retrospective data. We also plan field surveys. Sites will be selected according to a value gradient of the ecological niche of the vector and a value gradient of centrality of the places. Weekly surveys over a 2-year period will be used to analyze the evolution of adult mosquito stocks with respect to these two indicators, and epidemiological surveys of at-risk populations will be used to assess exposure levels, according to these two indicators. All of this data will also be used to calibrate and validate the simulation model. Exploration methods based on evolutionary algorithms will be mobilized to evaluate, compare and hierarchize the mechanisms of the model with regard to simulated dynamics and observations that they can or must produce or reproduce. These methods will also evaluate and compare vector control strategies against the epidemiological dynamics simulated by the model, in search of the most effective strategy or strategies. MO3’s ambition is therefore to develop a generic method that allows for vector-based struggles in priority areas, thus enabling local actors to optimally allocate their available but limited resources.



In collaboration with


Productions scientifiques

  • Lefebvre B., Karki R., Misslin R., Nakhapakorn K., Daudé É., Paul R. (2022), Importance of Public Transport Networks for Reconciling the Spatial Distribution of Dengue and the Association of Socio-Economic Factors with Dengue Risk in Bangkok, Thailand. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(16), pp. 101-123, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191610123, https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr...
  • Cebeillac A., Daudé É (2023), Mobilité et diffusion des épidémie. In Vallée J. (ed.), « Mobilité quotidienne et santé », chap. 2, pp. 7-47, ISTE ed. https://hal.science/hal-04184046
  • Tran A., Daudé É., Catry T. (coord.) (2022), Télédétection et modélisation spatiale. Applications à la surveillance et au contrôle des maladies liées aux moustiques, Quae ed., 149 p., ISBN 9782759236282. https://www.quae.com/produit/1784/9...
  • Daudé É., Rey-Coyrehourcq S., Cebeillac A. (2022), Simulation spatiale du risque de propagation de la dengue à partir de modèles comportementaux vecteurs et hôtes. in Tran A., Daudé É., Catry T. (coord.), « Télédétection et modélisation spatiale appliquées à la surveillance et au contrôle des maladies vectorielles dues aux moustiques », chap. 9, Quae ed., p. 119-130.
  • Cebeillac A., Gilet O., Daudé É. (2022), Du recensement au bâtiment : génération de populations synthétiques. in Tran A., Daudé É., Catry T. (coord.), « Télédétection et modélisation spatiale appliquées à la surveillance et au contrôle des maladies vectorielles dues aux moustiques », chap. 4, Quae ed., p. 63-71.
  • Boufhal B., Cebeillac A., Daudé É. (2022), Estimation des températures de l’air à partir d’images satellites et de stations météorologiques. in Tran A., Daudé É., Catry T. (coord.), « Télédétection et modélisation spatiale appliquées à la surveillance et au contrôle des maladies vectorielles dues aux moustiques », chap. 3, Quae ed, p. 53-61.



  • Daudé É., Paul R., Cebeillac A. (2023), Does the complexity of urban environment impact the diversity and density of potential breeding sites for Aedes aegypti ? Application to Bangkok city. Asia-Pacific Conference on Mosquito and Vector Control (AMV), https://www.amv2023.com/, 27-30 nov. 2023, Chang Mai, Thailand.
  • Saval A., Bourgais M., Daudé É., Tranouez P. (2023), Escape-SG : un jeu sérieux pour mieux préparer les évacuations de masse. JFSMA, Journées Francophones sur les Systèmes Multi-Agents, 5-7/07/2023, Université de Strasbourg. Prix de la meilleure interface à l’AFIA 2023, Association Française d’Intelligence Artificielle.
  • Jupimai T., Jantarabenjakul W., Kowitdamrong E., Siriyasatien P., Cebeillac A., Daudé É., Paul R.E., Puthanakit T. (2023), Centrality and dengue virus exposure risk in Bangkok, 6th Asia Dengue Summit (https://www.asiadenguesummit.org/) 15-16 June 2023, Bangkok, Thaïlande.
  • Daudé É. (2022), Aedes-borne diseases in urban areas : dealing with discontinuities, Conférencier Invité, 1st Indonesia – France International Scientific Meeting One Health Approach in Vector Borne Diseases, IMERI Building Jakarta, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia, 2-3 Dec 2022.
  • Daudé É. (2022), Maps, Models and Dengue. Conférencier Invité, One Health Summer course, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonésie, juin 2022.
  • Daudé É. (2022), Discontinuités intra-urbaines et Maladies à Transmission Vectorielle, Anisette, Colloque de restitution, Maison de la télédétection, 16-19 nov., Montpellier.
  • Cebeillac A., Daudé É., Generation of a synthetic population and simulation of daily individual mobilities from multi-source data (Bangkok, Thailand) in a dengue epidemic context. Session “Modelling Individual Behaviour In An Applied Geography Context”, UGI, 18-22 juillet 2022, Paris, France.
  • Boufhal B., Cebeillac A., Paul R., Daudé É., Detection of suitable environments for the development of Aedes aegypti in urban areas : a study in Bangkok (Thailand). Session “Health And Environment In The Tropical Regions”, UGI, 18-22 juillet 2022, Paris, France.
  • Longo A., Daudé É., Paul R. (2021), Évaluation des zones et périodes potentiellement favorables à l’implantation, à la prolifération et au maintien de population de moustiques vecteurs de la dengue, du virus Zika et du Chikungunya en région parisienne et à Bangkok (Thaïlande), Rencontres Géographie de la santé, 4-5/02/2021, Rennes.